This is a forum to discuss the an Idea on concepts for the promotion and development of the the bio diesel technologies.... something I shall refer to as Green oil, and of course Black oil is petroleum based diesel.
This is an “Open Letter” to the leaders of the Philippine people.
Our Purpose of the letter is:
To alert, educate, motivate, and inspire to action, our leaders, on the issue of Peak Oil and the dire consequences it has for us all.
There is only one way we can accomplish that goal, however: Leadership. Unless decisive leadership is provided, not one element of this report will result in meaningful action. That fact is evidenced by the growing number of peak oil studies that have recently been written by nationally and internationally known authors, and yet no action of consequence has resulted.
What makes it so difficult to believe, however, are the conclusions that result from that flow: the facts do not square with all we “know” about the foundations upon which our life is built and on our unquestioned certainty that in the future, things will always only improve.
No serious scientist, geologist or economist believes that the cheap crude oil upon which our society currently runs will last forever; all believe it will someday end. Since it is clear that an effective transition will be measured in decades, given that all agree the world has pumped approximately one trillion barrels of oil from the ground thus far, it is an imperative that we begin immediately to analyze, conceive, and then implement a plan to transition to alternatives before being forced to do so as a result of a supply in terminal decline.
We’re in a dramatic race to decrease fossil fuel demand (and emissions). Energy security, the climate, and the economy are all at stake. peak oil, increased demand will trump the effects of most any other issue we face.
Who we are,
Xgropu works as a nonpartisan, not-for-profit organization committed to reducing
To the jatropha information group our non-profit organization is dedicated to addressing two of the world most pressing problems, GLOBAL WARMING and PEAK OIL.
JIG argues that the time is ripe for developing countries, and development agencies such as the World Bank, to re-evaluate their stance on biofuels. JIG contend that a swing behind biofuels can unlock a chain reaction of favorable developmental processes – provided developing countries seize the initiative and set in place renewable energy industry creation projects before the developed world has managed to shake itself out of its fossil fuel dependence...and the impending disaster of Peak Oil & Global Warming ...
Our deep green - dream ... is millions educated energy efficient, interconnected and economically prospering villages... Developing many hundreds millions ha of Jatropha world wide...may be the only hope to survive the economic ravages of peak oil.
Why we doing this, in a word we are running out of time!
Our organizations are full of people who are impelled to act when faced with such dire and sobering hard truths be they inconvenient or no. We must do all we can, we must do the right thing, and we must try, even if the effort is futile, and out warning fall upon deaf ears. For it our honor is at stake or moral imperative is to alert all that we can.
The Growing Demand for oil from a Dwindling Supply as reported in Oct 2007 report
link http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf
“The major result from this analysis is that world oil production has peaked in
2006. Production will start to decline at a rate of several percent per year. By
2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower.
This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame.
The world is at the beginning of a structural change of its economic system. This
change will be triggered by declining fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost
all aspects of our daily life. Climate change will also force humankind to change energy consumption patterns by (reducing significantly the burning of fossil fuels.)
EWG’s founder and the German MP behind the countries successful support system for renewable energy.
We’ve used about 1.1 trillion barrels. Oil companies with current technologies can’t get it all out of the ground, so maybe there is a trillion gallons left… for human consumption. And we’re consuming a lot of fuel: about 3 billion gallons a day worldwide, or roughly a half-gallon for every person on the planet. By 2012, the human race will have consumed 1.5 trillion barrels… http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9803819-7.html …do the math.
Plus According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global demand for oil grew last year at its fastest pace since 1980, now averaging 88.1 million barrels a day. Out of that, about 20 to 25 million barrels of oil demand comes from the
What is even more concerning is that peak oil production has already hit all the world’s oil producing nations with the exception of
Colin Campbell, one of the world’s leading oil geologists, estimates global production will hit its peak this year 2007.
Oil Supply Shortages Likely After 2007, New Report Shows
“There are not enough large-scale projects in the development pipeline right now to offset declining production in mature areas and meet global demand growth beyond 2007,” said as stated in Petroleum Review of London.
Peak oil in 20 minutes …
What are the issues?
Growing demand:
Over the next twenty years the global demand for oil will increase sharply, hitting 120 million barrels by 2025.
As the global trend for greater oil demand grows over the months ahead it’s clear there are those in the world who will get the short end of the oil supply and other commodities. It’s also clear either the
Demand for oil all over the west is still rising
Supply shortage:
Peak production of conventional oil came 30 months ago and although new production projects will come on stream in the next few years, they will have a hard time balancing the depletion from existing fields which various speakers placed at 4-5 percent a year and probably increasing.
Global oil suppliers could start to have difficulty meeting growing demand after 2007, according to a study of existing and planned major oil-recovery projects published this month in Petroleum Review. New production is set to hit the market over the next three years, the volumes expected from anticipated new projects thereafter are likely to fall well below requirements.
Supply Depletion:
What is even more concerning is that peak oil production has already hit all the world’s oil producing nations with the exception of
As a greater share of world production shifts to undersea production, which is expensive and is usually water flooded to get the oil out as quickly as possible, some believe the annual world depletion rate could increase to 7 percent or more.
SA is now problematic. (Site report)
Plus, there is a disturbing new concept, idea running across the
Indicators:
Price
Oil prices have hovered at record level. Wednesday morning, NYMEX crude was listed at $84.96 a barrel; oil prices topped $90 a barrel last week. Analysts do agree, however, that oil prices could continue to rise.
Production
There are not enough large-scale projects in the development pipeline right now to offset declining production in mature areas and meet global demand growth beyond 2007,” said as stated in Petroleum Review of London.
Refinery Capacity
If the actions - rather than the words - of the oil business’ major players provide the best gauge of how they see the future, Crude oil prices have doubled since 2001, but oil companies have increased their budgets for exploring new oil fields by only a small fraction. Likewise,
Plans of major oil refiners
$20 Billion, scheduled, for new heavy tar, & sand oil shale, like artic heavy sulfured crude, no money to fix light crude refinery, the kind you need for mid east and Saudi oil, the capacity lost during hurricane Karina.
What is wrong here oil is bring record price ins at almost 90 a barrel yet major producers don’t want to fix a refinery systems they can make them millions, systems than process all that good sweet Mideast crude? Well, my military logical says, maybe there out, there is no more oil like that, to process, or maybe there is enough refinery capacity for little that is left. We say the truth is in actions not words.
Time horizon: 3 to 4 years (
The US scenario goes like this, if we use 25 % of the world oil, about 20MBD out of the 80 or so produced, US 25% and China 30%, these two take half of it all now… Remember we don’t care about percent only the amount demanded. First, consider flat demand, we would see a decrease of 7% per year, 7% of 84 is 5.88 so in 2010,3* 5.88 or 17mbd, short, the world oil supply will have decreased by some 21%, That put total supply at, about 80%,currnrt maxium, or 66mbd. Now, just because the would has less, does not mean USA need less, we need 21 mbd, oil to grow, no growth is economic death, so we will buy almost about half, of the world oil, 21mbd of the 66mbd, goes to us, the US. The ROTW can divide the rest… in six years World oil is down by almost 42% 5.88 *6 = 35.28mbd from its maximum production of 84. That makes world production 48mbd, but USA still need our oil 21 MBD, so that we take half more again, 21 of the remaining 48 About 50% of it all. A few more years there is not enough oil even to meet our demand even if we take it all.
Time for jatropha to grow,
1,000 nurseries in across Phil
10,000 ha a day,
How much will it hurt?
No energy no economy h theory
The final war for the planet’s resources has already started. However in order to propel such economic growth, there is one key commodity you need above all the others. And if you can’t get enough of it, having all the other resources won’t matter. The most prized and sought after commodity which makes the world tick is oil. With out it, you have nothing. Your economy would be frozen.
What we in have not yet begun to grasp is that numbers like this imply the near total demise of the private internal combustion powered automobile. Your local gasoline station is at the end of the distribution pipeline and is the most likely to be cut off.
If gasoline available for distribution to fall from x million barrels a day to the order of ½ x million through a combination of declining production and declining exports, it is not hard to figure out what would happen when the government gets around to prioritizing uses.
1. Food production and distribution would come first,
2. then public health (clean water, sewage, sanitation, medical services),
3. then public safety including the armed forces, and
4. Finally some level of economic activity that uses petroleum products.
Cheap oil greases the gears of the world economy. So, it seems that for every 5.00 per b increase economy falls 1/3 % in growth. With oil price at $90.00 for a low of $50 at start of the year, then that is difference of $40.00 and a decrease in economic growth of, 2.5%. This is the effect on the powerful economy on this earth, smaller or weaker economies there would be much more of a severe impact.
The fall in the amount of oil available for purchase is likely to drop much more quickly than declines in production. When world oil exports fall, if they have not started doing so already, effects are likely to sharp and painful.
There will be very little gasoline available for your gas station to sell to you. For sure, there will be a lot fewer gas stations around ten years from now and you are not going to like the prices.
Steps to oblivion
Virtually every major component of the global economy is fueled by petroleum; demand is growing now even faster than the most optimistic estimates predicted.1 If the supply of crude oil were to unexpectedly plateau and then begin an irreversible decline, the shock would be devastating. What is different about this issue, however, is the number of facts which undergird the argument and the clear logic that flows from one event to the other.
What makes it so difficult to believe, however, are the conclusions that result from that flow: the facts do not square with all we “know” about the foundations upon which our life is built and on our unquestioned certainty that in the future, things will always only improve.
Economic slow down,
Recession
A recession may involve simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. Recessions may be associated with falling prices (deflation), or, alternatively, sharply rising prices (inflation) in a process known as stagflation. A severe or long recession is referred to as an economic depression. A devastating breakdown of an economy is called economic depression
Depression
Oil rise would slow consumer demand, and this would under mine business and consumer confidence.
Inflation, both rising oil and falling currency make consumer goods more expensive (inflation). Spike in oil prices, would thus cause an reeveution their currency higher, thus increasing inflation. High inflation makes existing bonds unattractive and new one must be offered at a higher rate.
economic collapse is a devastating breakdown of a national, regional, or territorial economy. A full or near-full economic collapse is often quickly followed by months, years, or even decades of economic depression, social chaos, and civil unrest. Usually this is eventually corrected at least in part by recovery measures implemented by the government,
Hyper inflation,
hyperinflation is inflation that is “out of control,” a condition in which prices increase rapidly as a currency loses its value. One simple definition requires a monthly inflation rate of 20 or 30% or more. In informal usage the term is often applied to much lower rates.A vicious circle is created in which more and more inflation is created with each iteration of the cycle. Although there is a great deal of debate about the root causes of hyperinflation, it becomes visible when there is an unchecked increase in the money supply or drastic debasement of coinage, and is often associated with wars (or their aftermath), economic depressions, and political or social upheavals.
The main cause of hyperinflation is a massive imbalance between the supply and demand of a certain vital commodities or like oil. It is one of the first symtoms of full economic collapse.
Economic collapse.
We also know that growth is central to our way of life. Businesses are expected to grow. Every day new businesses are formed and new products are developed. The world population is also growing, so all this adds up to a huge utilization of resources.
At some point, growth in resource utilization must collide with the fact that the world is finite. We have grown up thinking that the world is so large that limits will never be an issue. But now, we are starting to bump up against limits.
Uncutable, connection between our food supply and energy.
But in fact, without petroleum, we would only be able to produce a fraction of today’s crop yields. Some of the reasons are obvious and understandable: mechanization of farm equipment fueled by gas or diesel fuel permits large tracts of land to be farmed by very few workers; electric generators running on diesel are used to power the pumps to irrigate huge fields; machines (running on fossil fuels) process the food; and trucks and other delivery vehicles of every sort distribute food between the various stops of processing until the consumer drives it home from the grocery store. But that is only part of the story, and statistically speaking, not the most critical.
Without food, we have no industry or information. Unfortunately many don’t understand this. Nor do they understand that today the modern farming system is merely a means to turn petroleum into food, via mechanized planting and harvesting, and the use of petroleum based insecticides and fertilizers which consume huge amounts of energy in their manufacture.
According to Wikipedia, who gets it from Science, 1% of the world’s energy goes into the manufacture of chemical fertilizer (here).
one can not seriously believe that the world economy is infinitely elastic with regards to energy. With regard to the agricultural system, there is data which shows the limits to this inelasticity and these limits are due to the laws of physics
Agriculture based only upon animal energy allowed the human population to grow to about 750 million by 1750 (Cavali-Sforza, 1994, p. 68). Peak oil will do several bad things to the world’s energy supply.
Going back to an animal-energy based economy means that approximately 5/6ths of us must die. The post fossil fuel world, lacking some new energy source, will consist of not many more than 750 million souls.
What an ugly century this will be. While there are some long-shot grasps-at-straws possible replacements for fossil fuels, the political turmoil resulting from mass starvation may preclude their development and implementation.
Population Effects
Consider that from the year zero until 1850 the global population increased from about 300 million to 1.5 billion, But in just the 12 years from 1987 to 1998, the population increased from 5 to 6 billion for an average of 83 million per year.
A global explosion of population since 1900 the oil age, and since the mid 1980s, has exactly mirrored the growth in crude production. Why are these facts significant when discussing peak oil? Because far and away the primary driver for the “Green Revolution” have been its petroleum-based inputs; without these Inputs it would be impossible to generate the volume of produce per acre of ground we currently enjoy.
If petroleum inputs decline, so too will the ability to produce food, and at a correlation comparable with the ascension.
These fossil fuels are finite resources and mounting evidence supports the hypothesis that their production will soon go into terminal decline. The current food system is also degrading the natural systems it depends on for its existence.
The main conclusions of this study are;
(A) The current food system is unsustainable because it is overly dependent on non-renewable fossil fuel resources which will soon become more scarce
(B) This posses a threat to food security, because with the current system, fossil fuel supply shortages mean food supply shortages
(C) To insure food security the current food system should be transformed into a system that efficiently uses local renewable energy, enhances the regeneration of renewable resources and is ecological sustainable.
While these facts portend a dire future, a bit of encouragement might be in order: man’s capacity to solve challenging problems. As has been the case since the dawn of mankind, when faced with overwhelming problems, man is capable of great feats: there’s nothing like the prospect of one’s death to focus the mind.
However, even the good news is tempered: the longer we wait to begin that intensive effort and significant investment, the narrower the gap between discovery of the problem and the onset of its consequences.
Left on your own?
How can we fix it?
Our interconnected world
• Our world has grown both increasingly sophisticated and interconnected - technological advances ensure that the size, complexity and interdependence between communities are relentlessly increasing.
sophisticated initiative
• What is required is a sophisticated initiative that synergistically fosters global public awareness and creative thinking on these system threats - a virtual clearinghouse for comprehensive and comprehensible information, which would simultaneously encourage collaboration by experts and amateurs world-wide.
comprehensible information
• a virtual clearinghouse for comprehensive and comprehensible information, which would simultaneously encourage collaboration by experts and amateurs world-wide.
Solution #1 -Education
• educating people thru web technologies… so they can understand and research the most significant issues of our time…
• We believe the world is at a tipping point and that radical change is inevitable; we plan to make that change a positive one.
At the tipping point
• The confluence of major trends that are already in place and potential global events on the horizon ensure that we must tackle these systemic issues or shortly face severe consequences.
Problem no. 1: Global warming
• overthrow global warming's biggest culprit - power plants
• quarter of that CO2 comes from electrical power plants
• replacing plants that run on fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas with renewable power sources …Waste Cake …
• building green-energy infrastructure
Problem no. 2: Peak Oil
• Oil dependency
Technology, - Google.org
• Larry Page and Sergey Brin Founders of Google …
• when they recently unveiled their plans for Google.org--the $1 billion philanthropy arm
• Google created to fight poverty, disease and global warming
• The two men believe for-profit status for Google.org is the answer to solving many of the world's problems …
• “They aren't nonprofits, but they're less-profits. …Maybe they'll take 7-10 years to pay off."
What if ?
How much jatropha to replace the worlds requirements a proposal for the G8…
• Assume- 84 million barrels per day
• That is 30,240,000,000 barrels per Year
• We have 100 countries plant jatropha ?
• 3 liters per tree – 5,000 trees per ha
13,776,000,000- Liters'
• 84 Billion barrels a year -
– Requires13,776,000,000 Liters per day
– 5,028,240,000,000 Liters per year
• One Jat tree produces 3 liters per year
• You can get about 5,000 trees per ha
– 1,676,080,000,000 - trees = 13,776,000,000
• @ 5,000 trees per Ha - 335,216,000 – ha
• Is 3,352,160 ha if 100 nations do about 3 Million *
1,676,080,000,000 – trees
in Carbon Absorption
• Absorb, 10kg per year, each for 20 years …
• That is 335,216,000,000,000 kg or 167,608,000,000 tons of co2e or –
• 8,380,400,000 per year … 8 Giga Tons
• @ $10 per ton that is $80 billion
• @ $15 per ton that is $120 Billion*
– Paid by G8
• Each 100 counties receives 1 Billion p/y to plant – 3,000,000- ha ….
ROI - 3,352,160 - ha
• If Each Tree earns about $1 per year …
– 5 kilo of seeds @ P10 per kilo … about 3 liters
– 5,000 Trees per ha average
– That is 15,000 (3*5,ooo)
• So …3,352,160 ha …will support @5,000 trees pre ha …
• About … 16,760,800,000 trees or $16,760,800,000 or P 787,757,600,000 per year (after 3 years) …
• And 7 Years earns is … 7* $16,760,800,000 = $117,325,600,000
• In seven years …P 5,279,652,000,000
• In new earnings plus savings…
National production
National consumption
Why you may not believe us
We are all wrong,
We are ½ right …we have more time…
We are right, but everyone, when faced with such dire, and shocking news, is in the process of Psychology of denial.
Denial involves a fundamental paradox – that in order to deny something it is necessary at some level to recognize its existence and its moral implications. It is, he says, a state of simultaneous ‘knowing and not-knowing’.
When highly qualified scientist had calmly and credibly outlined a process which, is to believed, made all other news, of our world marginal if not irrelevant. Why there was no comprehensive news coverage of what well may be the alert to such a tremendous change in history of civilization.
There is a third explanation – that people can not accept the truth of what is said without accepting the implications. The implication with this news is dire, direct and on us now. “The end of cheap abundant petroleum oil; which may portend the slowing and eventual end of all global economic growth in just a few years form now.”
Our capacity of denying the truth, is the normal state of affairs for people, particularly in an information-saturated society.
1. far from being pushed into accepting reality,
2. people have to be dragged into reality’
Psychoanalytic theory contains valuable pointers to the ways that people may try to resolve these internal conflicts;
angrily denying the problem outright (psychotic denial),
seeking scapegoats (acting out),
indulging in deliberately wasteful behavior (reaction formation),
projecting their anxiety onto some unrelated but containable problem (displacement), or
trying to shut out all information (suppression).
As the impacts of Peak Oil intensify we can therefore anticipate that people will willingly collude in creating collective mechanisms of denial along these lines.
We can expect to see denial:
· of knowledge (‘I didn’t know’),
· denial of our agency (‘I didn’t do it’),
· denial of personal power (‘I couldn’t do anything’, ‘no one else did anything’), and
· Blaming of others (‘it was the people with the big cars, the Americans, the corporations’).
The distinctions [between different forms of denial] are irrelevant to the solving the issue, but they do make a difference to educational or political attempts to overcome passivity and inaction.
Anyone concerned about Peak Oil and its attendant economic problems, faces a unique historical opportunity to break the cycle of denial, and join the handful of people our organizations, who have already decided to stop being passive bystanders.
The last century was marked by self-deception and mass denial. There is no need for the 21st Century to follow suit. Nor can afford to, if we don’t fix this, well not much else matters.
People will not accept the reality of the problem unless they see their leaders, people with the moral courage to do the right thing, their heroes who sacrifice for the good of others; Faced with problems of such enormity, all must be engaged in activities that reflect its seriousness.
This means they need to be confronted by emotionally charged activities; debate, protest, and meaningful, visible alternatives.
A keen observer of the American scene pointed out that most literate Americans are aware that we have some sort of energy problem. If for no other reason than unprecedented gasoline prices and the TV ads featuring yellow corn-fueled cars, most have at least an uneasy feeling that some sort of transformation is coming.
The problem is that most have no concept as to how soon the transformation will start and how much their lives are going to change. The President, the government, the Congress, the oil companies, and indeed the media have left us with the impression that we have the transformation to an alternative fuel future well in hand.
The peak oil problem is not that most of us don’t recognize a transition is coming – if for no other reason than reducing our dependence on “foreign oil” – it is that we don’t recognize that the transition will come soon and will inflict more economic pain and social dislocation on the people than we have experienced since last War or perhaps ever.
We are saying it will be soon and it will be bad, very bad,” much sooner and much worse than 99 percent of the people realize.
There are three points that strongly argue for immediate action: 1.) the preponderance of evidence, and 2.) the logic of cause-and-effect, and 3.) the consequences that would be paid by a world caught flat-footed at the peak.
The last word- a hope and a payer,
It’s never easy to be the bearer of bad tidings. But at times it is a moral imperative, So we do the best we can at X & JIGUSA. Plus, we will try harder in the future. The rest of our fate is in God’s hands, or if you prefer, in the ineluctable workings of a Universe over which we ultimately have little control. Nature—including Human Nature—will win in the end, as it always does. We now have at a chance, a glimmer of hope, with immediate action, but, adopting Business as usual, passive stance, will surly in just a few years; result in such dire consequences, all we will have is prayer.